Thursday 26 April 2012

Everyone else is doing it so why not England?


This is going to be my last discussion surrounding this subject, but as I've not really covered my view or reasoning in depth I'm going to take this opportunity to do so in the vain hopes that it gives at least someone involved with the England setup something to think about.

What am I referring to you ask? The selection of Norwich striker Grant Holt for the upcoming friendlies and Euro 2012 squad.

My initial reasoning is simply and easy to understand – he's the highest scoring English striker in the premiership this season behind Wayne Rooney, and has achieved this scoring goals against most of the top 6 sides, and still contributing strongly in the games he hasn't got on the score sheet.

For me, form is extremely important and something we arguably don't give enough respect to when choosing international line-ups. A player may have been brilliant previously, but if they're badly off-form for their club side and missing numerous easy chances or simply being anonymous - how can we justify their selection for the international team? Scoring a hat-trick six months ago is great, but if following this they've performed poorly and spent more time getting the ball back from the stands than the back of the net, then they simply can't be relied upon in what are arguably far more pressurised games, where you're not only looking for perform for your own clubs fans – but those of the whole nation.

On this basis, a player who has consistently and strongly performed across the whole season has be given full consideration, and whilst small blips of 2-3 games of poor form can be tolerated here and there, if this has been the case for the whole season then serious questions have to be asked.

A key example of this is with Liverpool striker Andy Carroll. His big money move to Liverpool has been a virtual disaster so far, and whilst he's shown previously that he can perform strongly, on his current form he shouldn't even be near the changing room, never mind the first 11. Yet Carroll is seen as one of the big 'players for the future', someone who in 2-3 years time could be England's first choice striker – maybe so, but until he stops playing like crap every week for Liverpool, that should be nothing more than a mirage, or some distant goal for him to personally target.

Holt's form over the season HAS been consistent, with the longest spell without scoring being just 4 games, and even when he's been rested as part of Paul Lambert's tactical shuffling, he's never let his head go down or dropped his effort levels.

Holt also holds another potential ace up his sleeve in the fact that he's actually the most efficient English striker in the league, with a shot to goal ratio of 29.3%. Now to put this into context, Wayne Rooney's is sat on 20.6%, Danny Welbeck's is at 15.5% and the aforementioned Andy Carroll has a shocking 8.2% ratio. On this basis Holt would usually score once for every 3 shots (approx), compared to Rooney needing 5 attempts, Welbeck taking 6 and Carroll a lamentable 12. But what about Holt's most similar rival – Peter Crouch? Well Crouch has a 21.3% ratio, so like Rooney he's going to need at least 5 shots to score.

This is of particular interest when you consider that international games tend to have less chances than many domestic league games, and therefore every shot is vital, ergo a striker who converts with less chances is an incredibly valuable asset.

My other main reasoning behind his selection is hinted to in the title of the article, in that if you look at all the other teams in the Euro's, in fact if you look at most international sides, they all have one thing in common – a strong, powerful striker who's skilled in the air or at holding up play somewhere in their squad. Whether it's Giroud for France, Pavlyuchenko for Russia, Bendtner for Denmark or Samaras for Greece, there's always a striker that offers a physical presence and aerial threat. Even Spain who are noted for playing the ball on the floor in their passing/possession game have a striker who is potent in the air with good body strength in Fernando Llorente. Many of these strikers are also highly competent with the ball into their feet, and for those who've watched Holt this season, they'll see that he's no slouch here either.

Having a player of this nature means that if the opposition are cancelling out your normal tactics and things like through balls and possession play isn't working, you can add this physical threat and change your game-plan accordingly. To quote a well known BBC pundit - “You need a Plan B”, and without someone like Holt, our other options are all too similar to be able to do this.

Defoe and Bent are natural strikers with pace and precision, yet neither is great in the air, nor are they the strongest physically. It's a similar situation with younger options like Sturridge and Campbell, and even though Danny Welbeck can perform the role to a certain extent, it's clearly not playing to his strengths, and I'm not even going to suggest restricting Rooney in this role...

That leaves 2 viable options IMHO – Holt and Crouch. Holt has scored more goals in less games in the league than Crouch, with a better games to goal ratio (2.13 for Holt vs 2.69 for Crouch), and we've already mentioned that Holt has the better efficiency on top of this. Crouch however has the experience, and with 42 caps already earned over the last 7 years, some would argue this makes him the more natural choice.

I can fully understand this logic, but Crouch has never been prolific with his best return being over a decade ago at Portsmouth, and aside from a recent wonder goal, he's not set the league alight this season either. I'd also like to point out that despite Crouch having a reasonable goalscoring record internationally, he's only done so against the 'poorer' international sides. Goals against Croatia and France are the two real highlights, with the remainder coming against the likes of Macedonia, Jamaica (x 3), Belarus (x2), Andorra (x 2) and Estonia.

Where are the Spain's, the Brazil's, the Italy's, the Argentina's, The Germany's???

Where are the big international teams in his scoring list?

The simple answer is they aren't there, as despite Crouch having played against all of them – he's never managed to get on the score sheet when he did. Part of this may well be down to how England performed as a whole, but the fact remains that he only really scores against relative minnows and does jack all against the big boys.

We have nothing to compare this to with Holt as he's never been up for consideration before, but with 2 friendlies against Norway and Belgium, we have the chance to see how he does against 'lesser' opposition before being thrown in against the real European heavyweights. This is the ideal time to see what he brings to the table instead of Crouch, and strong performances in both games should back his superior league form to give him the nod over Crouch. If not we've always got Crouch there as an option.

The fact is that regardless of anything else, Holt has earned his chance in the national team, but whether or not he would prove to be another Geoff Hurst, or simply another Michael Ricketts – we'll never know unless he's given the chance, and his non-selection in the squad for both the upcoming friendlies will prove once and for all that the big name clubs and big name players get preferential treatment over players who've got the form and work ethic – just not at a fashionable or successful enough club. Let's face it – if he can score against Man Utd and Chelsea whilst playing for Norwich, surely he can score against the likes of Moldova or the Ukraine when playing for England???

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